A salesperson shows gold bangles to a customer at the Dwarkadas
Chandumal Jewellers store in the Zaveri Bazaar area of Mumbai, India.
Hedge funds increased bets on gold rallying after prices
plunged the most in 33 years, underscoring billionaire John Paulson’s
view that bullion will rebound.
4:35
April 19 (Bloomberg) --
Nigel Moffatt, treasurer at the Perth Mint, talks about the demand
outlook for gold.
Shoppers in China lined up for gold this week, while in Hong Kong
they rushed to buy bracelets and in India sought jewelry for weddings
not set until December. The metal’s biggest price drop in three decades
provoked the clamor. Moffatt speaks with Zeb Eckert on Bloomberg
Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)
4:18
April 17 (Bloomberg) --
David Mazza, principal at State Street Bank and Trust, talks about an
exchange-traded fund for investing in gold.
He speaks with Adam Johnson and Trish Regan on Bloomberg
Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)
5:19
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Sean
Darby, chief global equity strategist at Jefferies Group Inc. in Hong
Kong, talks about global financial markets and his investment strategy.
He speaks with Susan Li and Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg
Television's "Asia Edge." (Source: Bloomberg)
Enlarge image
Fake gold ornaments sit between
calculators on a shelf in the trading hall of The Chinese Gold and
Silver Exchange Society in Hong Kong. Gold futures slumped 7 percent to
$1,395.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York last week, the biggest
decline since September 2011. Photographer: Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg
Fund managers and other speculators increased net-long
positions
in gold by 9.8 percent to 61,579 futures and options in the week ended
April 16, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Investors
turned bullish on silver for the first time in three weeks. Wagers on
higher prices across 18 U.S.-traded raw materials climbed 5.1 percent to
453,467 contracts, the first gain in three weeks.
A two-day, 13
percent drop in gold through April 16 drove prices to a two-year low,
erasing $560 billion from the value of central-bank reserves since the
metal peaked in 2011. Official- sector purchases and demand in Asia will
support bullion, Paulson & Co. said in a letter to clients last
week, joining
BlackRock Inc. (BLK),
the world’s biggest money manager, in predicting a rebound. The U.S.
Mint’s sales of American Eagle gold coins surged eightfold this month
from a year earlier.
“Given the price action, this rise in
holdings was pretty surprising,” said Dan Denbow, a fund manager at the
$1 billion USAA Precious Metals & Minerals Fund in San Antonio.
“People may have been looking to get back into the market and are taking
advantage of the price to do so. There are people who still have a
long-term belief in it. Physical buyers have also stepped up.”
Prices Slump
Gold
futures slumped 7 percent to $1,395.60 an ounce on the Comex in New
York last week, the biggest drop since September 2011. The Standard
& Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell 2.5 percent. The
MSCI All-Country World Index of equities slid 2.2 percent and the dollar
rose 0.5 percent against a basket of six trading partners. Treasuries
rose 0.1 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows. Bullion for June
delivery gained 2.7 percent to $1,433.10 an ounce on the Comex in New
York by 6:44 a.m. local time.
Since reaching $1,321.50 on April
16, the lowest since January 2011, bullion rebounded 8.4 percent. The
China Gold Association said retail sales surged April 15 and 16. Imports
by India
may jump by 36 percent in the three months through June compared with a
year earlier, the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd. said April 18. The
U.S. Mint sold 167,500 ounces so far in April, heading for the biggest
monthly total since May 2010.
Paulson View
Central-bank
stimulus will “eventually lead to inflation,” Paulson & Co. said in a
letter to clients obtained by Bloomberg News, reiterating a bullish
outlook for bullion. The hedge fund is the biggest shareholder in the
SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by the metal.
The price plunge was a “panic event,” Catherine Raw, a fund manager in London at BlackRock, which oversees about $3.8 trillion, said in an interview April 16 on Bloomberg Television.
While
the net-long position in gold climbed last week, most of the gain was
attributable to a retreat in short holdings rather than an increase in
long wagers. The divergence shows that the gain in the net position may
reflect short traders taking profit, rather than investors becoming more
bullish, according to Stanley Crouch, who helps oversee $2 billion as
chief investment officer at New York-based Aegis Capital Corp.
“Sometimes
you have to peel the onion when you look at this data,” Crouch said.
“It looks like that after such a big drop, people who were short were
ready to take their gains. That might also be why the price stabilized,
and it could mean that it’s even more vulnerable now.”
Short Holdings
Short
positions narrowed 8.2 percent to 59,742 contracts, and
longs
gained 0.1 percent to 121,321. The short holdings reached a record
70,126 in the week ended March 12, and are still more than triple the
average since 2006, when the CFTC data begins.
Assets in ETPs
backed by the metal tumbled 11 percent this year as investors shunned
the metal in favor of equities and inflation remained subdued. Societe
Generale SA said April 2 that the metal was in bubble territory and
would fall to $1,375 this year, when it was $200 higher. Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. advised traders on April 10 to sell the metal. Prices may
need to drop to as low as $1,050 after gold entered a “new reality,”
Deutsche Bank AG said April 18.
“This drop happened so fast and
so violently,” said Mary Ann Bartels, the chief investment officer of
portfolio strategies at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, which oversees
more than $2.2 trillion in assets. “People are asking ‘Why do I have
this in my portfolio?’ But when we run the analysis, nothing has
changed, gold adds diversification. Unfortunately, sometimes a
diversifying asset doesn’t go up.”
Central Bank
Central
banks are divided on whether the metal is cheap enough to increase
investment. Sri Lanka’s central bank governor said April 16 falling
prices are an opportunity for nations to raise reserves. Reserve Bank of
Australia’s assistant governor, Guy Debelle, said at a lunch in Canberra the same day that gold has no “intrinsic value.”
Money managers took $3.7 billion from commodity funds in the week ended April 17, said Cameron Brandt,
the director of research for Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR
Global, which tracks money flows. Outflows from gold and precious-metals
funds totaled $3 billion, he said.
Investors are holding a
net-long position in silver of 7,694 contracts, the CFTC data show. That
compares with a short position of 560 a week earlier and is the most
bullish outlook since Feb. 26. The funds trimmed their net-short holding
in copper to 27,412, from 32,850 a week earlier.
Crude Wagers
Wagers
on a rally in crude oil slid 6.8 percent to 183,032 contracts, the
second consecutive drop, the CFTC data show. Bullish platinum holdings
slumped 9.3 percent to 20,005, the lowest since August. Those for
palladium retreated 16 percent to the lowest since mid-January.
A
measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products surged
87 percent to 105,246 contracts, the biggest jump since September 2006.
Holdings a week earlier reached the lowest in more than six years.
Soybean wagers jumped 19 percent to 74,569, the largest gain since Feb.
5, and hog holdings are at the highest in seven weeks. Bullish corn bets
gained for the first time in three weeks.
Cold, wet weather
delayed corn and soybean planting across the U.S. Midwest. Sowing of the
grain on April 14 was 2 percent completed, the slowest since 1993,
government data show. U.S. soybean
sales since Sept. 1 are 13 percent higher than a year earlier. China is the largest buyer of the oilseed, used to make cooking oil and animal feed.
“Agriculture
is going to be very weather-dependent, and the change in diet in China
will support demand,” said Jeffrey Sica, who helps oversee more than $1
billion as the president of SICA Wealth Management in Morristown, New
Jersey. “For gold, until we see a meaningful decrease in the short
positions, it’s going to be very volatile. It’s no longer a safe haven,
but a momentum investment.”